War, strongmen and video games: A lose-lose scenario.

We live in a world of strongmen and superpowers trying to project power by declaring illegal wars on other countries to flex their muscles and show that they, and their countries, are still top dog. They end up worse off with their leaders perhaps wanted by the International Criminal Court. Everyone loses.

British strongmen – Rhodes, Kitchener, Curzon and the rest – flexed greatly during the days of the empire but were unable to keep the over-extended, indebted operation afloat. Although we were ahead in cutting-edge science and high-precision engineering – think magnetrons for radar, jet engines, nuclear research, early computers – America had long surpassed us in volume manufacturing and was moving up the value chain. Our proportionally smaller manufacturing base was unable to produce sufficient products to fund our global overextension and our investment bubbles like railways and the South Sea bubble ultimately popped. Two successive world wars were the nails in the coffin. No country is without its problems but it would appear that flexing wars alongside a shrinking manufacturing base are a poor recipe to make things better.

For a first recent example, let's look at Vladimir Putin and his illegal war on Ukraine. It seems the strongmen view war like video games. Level 1 was taking the Crimean Peninsula, which turned out to be very straightforward for Russia. But when it came to level 2, the "special military operation" to take Kiev, it didn't work out quite so easy. Such tolls can only be measured inexactly, but probably over 300,000 Russians dead, over 150,000 Ukrainians dead, along with the horror of over 20,000 children illegally kidnapped. Including the wounded, the numbers are far higher. Russia is now under attack at home – the missiles aren't just landing in – Ukraine; its oil production is hampered. Russia's manufacturing base has been severely impacted and its economy is far worse off. Putin hardly seems like a strongman anymore and is wanted by the International Criminal Court as a suspected war criminal. He, and Russia, are damaged by this unnecessary action and Russia no longer feels like a "superpower."

On the other side of the world, we have Donald Trump. Level 1 was taking illegal potshots at small boats in Latin America, with 193 murdered so far. He progressed rapidly to Level 2, the illegal kidnapping of Maduro from Venezuela. Encouraged by this, just as Putin was encouraged by taking the Crimean peninsula, with some words of wisdom from Netanyahu he thought he could beat the enemy in Level 3 and decimate Iran as well. Level 3 isn't easy for anyone to win. In Iran, the death toll, in the thousands, is probably less than the number of deaths at the hands of the country's own government. But to date, Level 3 isn't over. Probably some $30bn+ dollars later, negotiations are taking forever, US weapons stockpiles are massively depleted, 42 or more aircraft have been lost, and at least 228 structures on bases – hangers, barracks, fuel depots, air defence systems and radars – worth billions of dollars have been destroyed according to the Washington Post. Allies in the region have been blown up and the whole world is dealing with an oil shortage and price inflation as a result. It seems like Level 3 isn't going to to be over any time soon and everyone will certainly be in a worse place than under Obama's previous deal – where Iran couldn't have a nuclear weapon, the Strait of Hormuz was open, inflation wasn't a thing and less people were dead. American allies now know that the US will struggle to defend them and the US isn't viewed as quite the "superpower" it once was, with terms like TACO now commonly applied to the strategy.

Victor Orban of Hungary is out; so we'll look move next to Netanyahu, another man wanted by the International Criminal Court as a suspected war criminal. Through the Gaza genocide, he's left probably over 100,000 people dead by now, and denied the remainder basic human rights. The atrocities continue there, and in the West Bank, and in Lebanon. He was convinced by winning Level 1 – defeating Hamas, Hezbollah and Ansar Allah (aka Houthis) – he could also take on Iran too, with the US's help. Although he'd tried it with every other president, Trump was the only one to go for it. It turned out he hadn't truly defeated Hamas, or Hezbollah, or Ansar Allah, and the joint war in Iran was a failure. More importantly, he's a wanted suspected war criminal and he has succeeded in turning most of the world against Israel. Even a majority of Americans now hold negative views, something previously unthinkable, with Pew stating 60% of Americans express little to no confidence in Netanyahu and Gallup stating more Americans sympathise with Palestinians than Israelis. A staggering 75% of American adults under 30 have an unfavourable view of Israel. Of course, Israel will continue to survive as a technology and military powerhouse but the damage the deranged Israeli regime has done to the country won't be easily forgotten.

Meanwhile, we keep hearing warnings that China is going to invade Taiwan and launch an all-out war to take it by force, and that's what we should be worrying about. However Taiwanese and Chinese people have no interest in killing each other because they are the same people with common roots and ties. Beijing must now realise that avoiding war puts you in a far stronger position than starting one, and will be content to sit back and watch the other "powers" mess things up for themselves. Meanwhile Taiwan must realise that if the US can't defend its allies in the Middle East from Iran – which is far weaker than China – it can't possibly defend Taiwan successfully. China will accumulate so much power that diplomacy is the only option, and the sooner Taiwan starts negotiating, the better off they will be. After all, they will want a better deal than what Hong Kong got.